Zverev suddenly title favorite: These opponents can still stop him in Paris

The situation in the men's field in Paris has shifted noticeably within a few days. Jannik Sinner has already been eliminated in the second round, Carlos Alcaraz has withdrawn due to a wrist injury – the tournament has thus lost two key players around whom the seeding and the expectations of many fans were centered. For Alexander Zverev, this means: He moves more than ever into the role of the player around whom much will revolve in the second week of the tournament.

The 29-year-old now enters the next rounds of the French Open with a situation that rarely occurs at Grand Slams: a more open draw – and at the same time the clear chance to finally win his first major title. In the third round, Zverev will face Frenchman Quentin Halys on Friday evening (not before 8:15 p.m.), playing on Court Philippe-Chatrier.

Why Zverev is now at the center

The fact that Zverev is currently considered one of the most obvious title favorites is mainly the result of this constellation: Sinner's early exit and Alcaraz's withdrawal take away two players from the tournament who were recently considered natural final candidates in almost every Paris preview. The field has not become "easy" – but less predictable.

Especially for Zverev, this is a tricky mix of opportunity and expectation pressure. Because his past on the Grand Slam stage shows how quickly matches and tournament runs can turn. In the 2020 US Open final, he was already leading Dominic Thiem by two sets, in the end he was two points short of the title. This was followed by two more defeats in major finals. Anyone who has followed Zverev's career in the big moments knows: The decisive question is not only how strong the opponents are – but how stable he remains when the door is actually open.

Djokovic remains a factor despite question marks

In this situation, Novak Djokovic remains the opponent with the greatest historical weight. The Serb is chasing his 25th Grand Slam title in Paris; if he succeeds, he would become the sole record holder. He currently shares the record with Margaret Court. Even if Djokovic does not enter this tournament as a flawless top favorite, his experience in five-set matches remains a competitive factor of its own: He has won countless matches in which others have broken under the drama of a Grand Slam.

However, the conditions this time are not free from uncertainties. Djokovic is 38 years old, and the strain in Paris can – depending on the weather and match lengths – become an issue. And even though he has won big titles on clay, this surface is not considered his "most comfortable" compared to some other top players. In addition: If the preparation for the clay court season does not go optimally, the risk increases in Paris that a tight moment can tip – not because Djokovic has forgotten how to play tennis, but because at Grand Slams every small limitation in the second week has an exponential effect.

Jódar and Ruud: two very different risks

Among the remaining names are also players who can be dangerous in very different ways. Rafael Jódar would stand for the element of surprise: young, dynamic, with a game that relies more on speed and risk than on patient attrition over long rallies. In such tournaments, exactly this carefree approach can be a weapon – especially against favorites who suddenly have more to lose than to win. At the same time, with a 19-year-old on the biggest stage, the question always remains how he will react if a match in Paris becomes a mental test: deep evening session, pressure situations, crowd, momentum shifts.

Casper Ruud is much easier to classify. The Norwegian has already proven in Paris that he can "read" the tournament: He reached the final of the French Open in 2022 and 2023 – experience that is worth its weight in gold in the second week, because then it's no longer just about shots, but about routines, recovery, nerves, and the right risk management. Ruud lost both finals (2022 to Rafael Nadal, 2023 to Djokovic), but this very history makes him dangerous: Ruud knows the way all the way to the end, and he knows how quickly in Paris a solid run can turn into a real title chance when the field is open.

What this means for Zverev

For Zverev, the tournament is as favorable as it has been for a long time – and at the same time as demanding as ever.

Djokovic brings the experience and the ability to play himself into form over two weeks. Ruud has the most stable Paris record of the remaining chasers. And an outsider like Jódar could become especially uncomfortable if he grows into a match early and forces Zverev into a role that is psychologically harder than any number on paper: the man who "now has to deliver".

The decisive point for Zverev will therefore be less whether the view towards the final on June 7 is mathematically possible – but whether he manages to consistently avoid exactly that view. In Paris, the one who thinks about the trophy the earliest rarely wins. In Paris, the one who controls the next hour wins.