Zverev's big chance in Paris – but these opponents are still lurking

Alexander Zverev is in a better position at the French Open than he has rarely been at a Grand Slam. After the early exit of Jannik Sinner and the injury-related withdrawal of Carlos Alcaraz, the field has become more open – but the path to his first major title remains demanding.

Zverev has initially taken advantage of this situation: In the third round, he prevailed on Friday evening on Court Philippe-Chatrier against the Frenchman Quentin Halys in four sets (6:4, 6:3, 5:7, 6:2) and is now in the round of 16. The brief slump in the third set provides a realistic picture: There is less of the "impossible" in Paris than in some years – but still enough phases in which concentration and match management must be maintained over weeks.

The favorites' situation has shifted significantly

Within a few days, the dynamics of the tournament have changed. Sinner, one of the players who had shaped the tournament beforehand, has already been eliminated in round two. Alcaraz, recently a double champion in Paris, withdrew due to an injury to his right wrist; the tournament organizers also confirmed the forfeit.

For Zverev, this means: fewer fixed points in the draw, more opportunities – and thus also more pressure of expectation. In a "normal" year, a defeat against one of the dominant stars is easier to explain. In an open year, any wobble is quickly reinterpreted as a missed opportunity. This is exactly where the new tension lies for the coming rounds.

Djokovic, Jódar, Ruud: Three very different dangers

Novak Djokovic

The most prominent remaining name is Novak Djokovic. The 39-year-old is chasing his 25th Grand Slam title in Paris – a triumph that would make him the sole record holder; he currently shares the record with Margaret Court. Even if his preparation is considered less than ideal and external factors such as the heat in Paris can be an additional burden, Djokovic remains, in the best-of-five format, an opponent whose routine and adaptability can turn matches when others get nervous.

Rafael Jódar

A completely different unknown is Rafael Jódar. The 19-year-old Spaniard is considered a rising star on the tour this season; the ATP recently listed him as one of the young faces who have quickly advanced to the extended top. For opponents, this is a special challenge: less reliable Grand Slam experience on the one hand, but speed, courage, and a playing style that forces quick decisions on the other. In a tournament that has become more open, exactly these profiles can become particularly uncomfortable, because they do not follow the usual "scripts".

Casper Ruud

On the other hand, Casper Ruud brings consistency. The 27-year-old has been reliably strong on clay for years and already reached the final of the French Open in 2022 and 2023. His quality lies less in the element of surprise and more in stability: high depth in baseline play, patient points, clear patterns. For Zverev, this is the kind of opponent against whom a match does not "solve itself" – you have to win it with decisions, not by hoping for mistakes.

For Zverev, the mind will be the main factor

In Zverev's case, the decisive question is less about pure playing level and more about tournament management: How cleanly does he manage advantages, how consistently does he stay focused in phases when an opponent gets a brief breather?

The past provides the familiar reference points. In the 2020 US Open final, Zverev was already leading Dominik Thiem by two sets; in the end, he was two points short of the title. Later, two more defeats in Grand Slam finals followed. That is experience – but also a reminder of how small the margin is between a "big chance" and "later regret".

The situation in Paris amplifies this mental aspect. When two of the biggest names in the tournament drop out, the temptation grows to look toward the final too early. Zverev's task is therefore clearly defined: think round by round, play his own game with discipline, accept the changing demands of the opponents – and treat the pressure that comes with a rarely open title chance not as a burden, but as a framework condition.

Zverev's chance in Paris is as big as it has been in a long time. Precisely for this reason, in the coming days, it will be less the size of the opportunity that is decisive – but the calmness with which he defends it.