Zverev suddenly title favorite: Who can still stop him at the French Open?

Alexander Zverev is in a better position in Paris than ever before. But an open half of the draw is not a shortcut to a first Grand Slam title – it mainly shifts the pressure: from co-favorite to a player against whom everyone suddenly measures themselves.

After Jannik Sinner's second-round exit and Carlos Alcaraz's injury-related withdrawal, the draw at the French Open has been significantly reshuffled. Ahead of Zverev's third-round match against Quentin Halys (8:15 p.m./Eurosport), the focus is therefore not only on his form – but also on the few remaining profiles that still reliably pose a threat in a now more open field.

The starting position has improved significantly for Zverev

With Sinner and Alcaraz out of the title race, two names considered natural hurdles on the way to the trophy before the tournament have disappeared. This changes not only the mathematical possibilities but also the narrative of this tournament: Suddenly, the title seems within reach – and that is exactly where the new complication lies.

Because a Grand Slam is not won simply by the absence of competitors, but over two weeks in which expectations intensify. In this scenario, Zverev does not have to play "easier," but more clearly: treat each round as its own task, without losing focus on the present. An open draw in tennis is often less a gift than a test – especially mentally.

Djokovic, Jódar, Ruud: Three very different dangers

Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic remains a factor despite all the question marks. The 39-year-old is chasing his 25th Grand Slam victory in Paris, which would make him the sole record holder; currently, he shares the record with Margaret Court.

It is precisely this historical perspective that can make Djokovic dangerous: If there is one player who has proven reliable in big moments over the years, it is him. Boris Becker summed up the tension by saying he was "a little worried" before the tournament, but added: "If anyone can do it at Grand Slams, it's always Djokovic."

At the same time, there are more uncertainties than usual surrounding Djokovic this time. The heat in Paris is considered an additional burden, and the clay is, according to those around the tournament, not his preferred surface. In addition, his preparation for the clay court season was not ideal due to physical problems. For Zverev, Djokovic would thus be an opponent who relies less on flawless dominance and more on routine, adaptation – and the ability to force solutions in tight phases.

Rafael Jódar

Rafael Jódar embodies the opposite: 19 years old, 1.91 meters tall, with a rapid rise. Quarterfinals at the Masters 1000 tournaments in Madrid and Rome have put him among the outsiders with real impact. A year ago, he was still outside the top 600, now he is among the top 30 players in the world.

His style fits this development: Jódar seeks speed and risk, wants to avoid long rallies, and relies on initiative, not on grueling defensive work.

In a tournament where hierarchies have shifted early, this carefree attitude can be a dangerous factor – because it plays without regard for "big names." What speaks against him is the lack of experience on the Grand Slam stage: The further a tournament progresses, the more often it is not the prettier shot but the more stable decision that counts.

Casper Ruud

Casper Ruud, on the other hand, is not a surprise name on clay, but a model of reliability. The 27-year-old reached the final of the French Open in 2022 and 2023 and also recently made the final in Rome, where he only lost to Sinner.

Ruud brings a profile that rarely frays on this surface: repeatability, patience, clear patterns – and the certainty that he has already made it to the end in Paris, even if he was without a chance in the finals against Nadal and Djokovic. For him – as for Zverev – the chance for a first Grand Slam triumph opens up. Ruud expressed his attitude soberly: "I know that I probably won't break any big records in this sport. But I can do my best within my career and on my own path." It is precisely this down-to-earth attitude that can be an advantage at the decisive moment.

The biggest question lies with Zverev himself

The decisive uncertainty surrounding Zverev has less to do with his tennis than with the story that follows him at Grand Slam tournaments. In the 2020 US Open final against Dominic Thiem, he led by two sets; in the end, he was two points short of the title. This was followed by two more final defeats on the Grand Slam stage. Such experiences are not a flaw, but they shape perception – both from the outside and the inside: In crucial moments, every tight phase quickly becomes a test of the past.

In Paris, therefore, less will be said about strokes than about timing: When does Zverev allow himself to think about the trophy – and when does he stay focused on the next return, the next service game, the next set? Philipp Kohlschreiber accordingly warned: "There are still enough stumbling blocks." These stumbling blocks do not only begin in the semifinals, but in the everyday life of a Grand Slam, where concentration must be maintained over days.

This already applies to the third round against Quentin Halys. In the current tournament situation, every match is also a test of Zverev's focus: He must see the changed situation as an opportunity without letting the pressure of the new role throw him off his rhythm.

The chance for a first Grand Slam triumph has become more tangible for Zverev in Paris. Nothing is certain yet – but the standard is clearer: Whoever is now considered the favorite must not only win the tournament, but also withstand the expectations that come with it.